Newsletter Newsletter: US inflation data is showing signs of fatigue
2021-05-17
Every morning, Newsletter will provide the latest financial and financial highlights of the day and the previous day's market review, so stay tuned.
Important global financial news 1. International oil prices rose slightly on Friday but the weekly line still fell
Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, trading shocks, due to market assessment of the US crude oil inventories, Nigeria's turmoil, and global demand growth, these factors, and the oil market to restore balance is still slow, which is a negative factor. Brent crude oil futures closed up 0.39% on Friday at $52.10 a barrel. US WTI crude oil closed up 0.47% on Friday at $48.82 a barrel. But US oil still fell 1.5% this week, and oil oil fell 0.6%. This was mainly due to the poor performance of OPEC's production reduction and the deterioration of demand prospects.
2. The situation in the US and the DPRK is tight + US inflation is weak, and gold has risen to a 9-week high.
Gold prices rose to a two-month high on Friday, as the escalation of tensions between the DPRK and the United States prompted investors to seek safe haven and weak US inflation data, and recorded a fourth-day rise. Spot gold rose by about 0.3%, standing at the $1,290/oz mark, hitting a high of $1,291.86. COMEX December gold futures closed up 0.3% on Friday, at $1,294 per ounce. Set the highest closing level since June 6. Previously it rose 0.6% to $1,298.10 per ounce. As the previous data showed that US consumer prices rose less than expected in July, pointing to moderate inflation, may prompt the Fed to be cautious about raising interest rates again this year. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies on Friday.
3. Federal Reserve Kaplan: I want to see more evidence of inflation compliance before raising interest rates again.
Dallas Fed President Kaplan said on Friday that he is willing to wait patiently to see more inflation reaching the Fed's target before further interest rate hikes. Kaplan published a similar comment last month, saying that he wants to see more evidence of inflation. Kaplan said that the Fed’s policy stance may not be as lenient as people think, because the neutral interest rate is closer to 2% instead of 3%, and patience can be raised on the issue of raising interest rates.
4. Kashkali Tucao: High-paying "ghost story" shocked hawk officials
On Friday (August 11th), the Fed’s important dovish officials said that his hawks are telling each other about the “ghost story” about salary increases, which shocked them and rushed to raise short-term interest rates. Kashkali is the only opponent of the Fed’s two interest rate hikes this year. He believes that the Fed should suspend interest rate hikes before inflation reappears.
5. Baker Hughes: The number of natural gas drilling in the United States has dropped sharply, and global oil prices have risen in the short term.
At 1 am Beijing time on Saturday (August 12), US oil service company Baker Hughes released data showing that the total number of oil wells in the US increased by 3 in the week of August 11 and 27 in the past 30 weeks. Weeks increased, but the number of natural gas rigs dropped significantly by 8, far exceeding expectations. After the data was released, global oil prices rose slightly in the short term.
6. Saudi Energy Minister: The possibility of deepening production cuts still exists
Saudi Energy Minister Fahrenheit said in a report published by Saudi Arabia's "Asharq Al-Awsat" on Friday that OPEC and non-OPEC members have not ruled out the possibility of extending production cuts and even deepening production cuts. The Middle East Daily quoted Falih as saying that the possibility of a reduction in production still exists, and that the market will need to take further action, and will consider options such as extending production cuts and adjusting production scale. However, Falih said that Sha will not take action alone to adjust production, but will seek consensus from all parties.
7. Trump mouth gun upgrade: US Guam bomber is already in place
At 7:30 on the US local time, US President Trump once again pushed the North Korea to "violently fire". It is said that if North Korea makes unwise choices, the US military has already "installed the bombs and prepared to fire." It also said that Kim Jong-un, who had previously expressed his desire to fight against the US island of Guam, "seek another way." The North Korean Central News Agency reported that Trump’s remarks that "the United States does not rule out the war against the DPRK" are pushing the Korean peninsula to the brink of nuclear war.
8. The US inflation data is worse than expected.
On Friday (August 11th), the US released inflation data. In July, the CPI monthly rate only recorded a 0.1% increase, lower than the expected 0.2%, causing a huge storm in the financial market, the US dollar fell sharply, non-US currencies and Short-term precious metals such as gold and silver have risen sharply, breaking through key points. The specific data shows that the US CPI in July was 0.1%, expected to be 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.0%. US July CPI was 1.7% year-on-year, with an expected 1.8% and a previous value of 1.6%. The US core CPI in July was 0.1%, expected 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.1%. The US core CPI in July was 1.7% year-on-year, with an expected 1.7% and a previous value of 1.7%.
9. Stocks and oils in the three cities, sorrowful and ubiquitous Bitcoin broke through the 3,500 mark and laughed to the end.
Recently, global stock markets, bond markets, and oil markets have been sorrowful. As the most volatile asset, bitcoin and other digital currencies have laughed at the end. The tension between the United States and North Korea has boosted safe-haven buying, which has soared. The traditional safe-haven asset gold is also eclipsed. Affected by risk aversion, gold recorded its fourth consecutive trading day on Friday, hitting a two-month high. The yen also broke through the 109 mark, but it still dwarfs compared to the biggest winner encrypted digital currency. Bitcoin broke through the 3,500 mark on Friday (August 11), a record high, and the Ethereum fell slightly, but in the past four trading days, the increase was over 30%.
10. IEA monthly report adds another loss! July OPEC production reduction rate is only 75%
Beijing time on Friday (August 11) at 16:00, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a monthly crude oil market report, pointing out that global crude oil supply increased by 520,000 barrels per day in July, the third consecutive month of increase, of which OPEC crude oil The supply increased by 230,000 barrels per day to 32.84 million barrels per day, the highest output level since the official implementation of the production reduction agreement in January 2017. The reduction in production compliance rate also peaked during the year, from 78% in June to 75%. %.
11. The three major US stock indexes closed slightly higher
The three major US stock indexes closed slightly higher, but the geopolitical crisis still caused the S&P and Dow to break in a single week for nearly five months. The S&P 500 index closed up 3.28 points, or 0.13%, to 2,441.49 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 15.26 points, or 0.07%, to 21,859.27 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 39.91 points, or 0.64%, to 6256.78 points. This week, the S&P 500 index fell 1.4%, the Dow fell 1.1%, the Nasdaq fell 1.5%, the Dow and S&P both created the biggest weekly decline since the week of March 24, the Nasdaq hit June 30 The biggest weekly decline since the beginning. The Russell 2000 Index was the biggest weekly decline since February 2016. The panic index VIX fell nearly 4% on Friday, but still stood above 15.30. It once touched the highest level since the US election last year, 16.04, up 44%. This week, the VIX index has risen by nearly 50%.
Important domestic financial news 1. The balance of the balance of the individual amount is reduced to 100,000 yuan, the existing stock is not affected
On the evening of August 11, Tianhong Fund issued an announcement. From the zero point on August 14th, the ceiling of the balance trading account for personal accounts was adjusted to 100,000 yuan, and the existing stock was not affected. According to the announcement, Tianhong Fund Management Co., Ltd. adheres to the business philosophy of “stable financial management, trustworthy” and has been committed to providing users with stable and inclusive financial services. Since the beginning of this year, the scale of Yubao has grown rapidly. In order to maintain the stable operation of Yu'ebao, safeguard the fundamental interests of investors and better serve the public investors, Tianhong Fund Management Co., Ltd. has decided to increase the balance from August 14, 2017. Bao’s personal trading account holding limit is adjusted to 100,000 copies, and the existing stock is not affected.
2. Renminbi suspension "four consecutive rises" short-term technical adjustment does not change the medium-term strength
On Friday (August 11th), Beijing time, the onshore renminbi fell slightly against the US dollar, and the official closing price of 16:30 was 6.6668, down 58 points from the previous day's closing, down 183 points from the previous day's closing price; It continued to rise nearly 130 points, refreshing a new high of 10 and a half months. Affected by the continued increase in the median price, the RMB exchange rate CFETS index announced by the Foreign Exchange Trading Center returned to the 94 mark five months later. Traders said that some agencies speculated that today's regulators have launched a filtering mechanism for the middle price, conveying to the market the intention not to expect the renminbi to appreciate too fast, the offshore renminbi has turned down, and the bargain-hunting purchases have also quickly rushed to the renminbi. However, the short-term adjustment does not change the medium-term strength.
3. Weibo, WeChat, Baidu Post Bar was investigated and suspected of violating the Cyber Security Law
According to the National Cybercommunication Office on the 11th, recently, the National Network Information Office directed Beijing and Guangdong Province's Internet Information Office to file a case against Tencent WeChat, Sina Weibo, Baidu Post Bar, and investigate according to law. After receiving the announcement of the notice issued by the website, the three organizations responded that they would actively cooperate with the investigation of the website. According to the website of the Internet, according to reports from netizens, through the initial investigation of the Beijing and Guangdong Province Internet Information Offices, the websites of WeChat, Weibo and Post Bar on the three websites respectively have users spreading violent terror, false rumors, obscenity and pornography, etc. Information on public safety and social order. The three website platforms are suspected of violating the "Network Security Law" and other laws and regulations, and the information prohibited by the laws and regulations issued by their platform users has not fulfilled their management obligations. The follow-up progress of the case will be released by the relevant local network office.
4. The People's Bank of China stated that it will firmly hold the bottom line without systemic financial risks.
The People's Bank of China released the second quarter of China's Monetary Policy Implementation Report on its website on Friday, saying that it will continue to implement a prudent and neutral monetary policy, and take the initiative to prevent and resolve systemic financial risks in a more important position, and focus on preventing and resolving. Key areas of risk, firmly hold the bottom line of systemic financial risks. The relationship between stable growth, structural adjustment and total control will be handled to create a moderately moderate monetary and financial environment for supply-side structural reform.
Global market broadcast gold
COMEX December gold futures closed up 0.3% at $1,294 per ounce
Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T+D August 11 (Friday) night plate closed up 0.11%, reported 276.96 yuan / gram
Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T+D August 11 (Friday) closed down 0.38% at night, reported 3898.00 yuan / kg
Foreign exchange
The US dollar index fell more than 0.3%, falling below the 93 mark, after falling to 92.86.
USD/JPY fell to 16-week low of 108.74
The euro rose 0.42% against the dollar, once rising to 1.1846
crude
US WTI crude oil futures closed up 0.47% at $48.82 per barrel
ICE Brent crude oil futures closed up 0.39% at $52.10 a barrel
US stocks
US S&P 500 index closed up 0.13% on August 11 (Friday), at 2441.34 points
The US Nasdaq index closed 0.64% on August 11 (Friday), reporting 6255.56 points.
The US Dow Jones index closed at 0.07% on August 11 (Friday), at 21858.53 points
A share
China's Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.63% on August 11 (Friday), to 3208.54 points
China's Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index closed down 1.81% on August 11 (Friday), at 10291.35 points
China's Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed down 1.84% on August 11 (Friday), at 3647.35 points
China's Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) closed down 0.66% on August 11 (Friday), at 3647.35 points
European stocks
Germany's DAX index closed at 0.07% on August 11 (Friday), at 12023.00 points
The UK's FTSE 100 index closed down 1.17% on August 11 (Friday) at 7303.50
France's CAC40 index fell 0.95% on August 11 (Friday), to 5606.50 points
Spain's IBEX35 index fell 1.55% on August 11 (Friday), to 10288.00 points
Italy's FTSE index closed down 1.39% on August 11 (Friday) to 21,380.50
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